Estimated protection against COVID-19 based on predicted neutralisation titres from multiple antibody measurements in a longitudinal cohort, France, April 2020 to November 2021.

BackgroundThe risk of SARS-CoV-2 (re-)infection remains present given waning of vaccine-induced and infection-acquired immunity, and ongoing circulation of new variants.AimTo develop a method that predicts virus neutralisation and disease protection based on variant-specific antibody measurements to SARS-CoV-2 antigens.MethodsTo correlate antibody and neutralisation titres, we collected 304 serum samples from individuals with either vaccine-induced or infection-acquired SARS-CoV-2 immunity. Using the association between antibody and neutralisation titres, we developed a prediction model for SARS-CoV-2-specific neutralisation titres. From predicted neutralising titres, we inferred protection estimates to symptomatic and severe COVID-19 using previously described relationships between neutralisation titres and protection estimates. We estimated population immunity in a French longitudinal cohort of 905 individuals followed from April 2020 to November 2021.ResultsWe demonstrated a strong correlation between anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies measured using a low cost high-throughput assay and antibody response capacity to neutralise live virus. Participants with a single vaccination or immunity caused by infection were especially vulnerable to symptomatic or severe COVID-19. While the median reduced risk of COVID-19 from Delta variant infection in participants with three vaccinations was 96% (IQR: 94-98), median reduced risk among participants with infection-acquired immunity was only 42% (IQR: 22-66).ConclusionOur results are consistent with data from vaccine effectiveness studies, indicating the robustness of our approach. Our multiplex serological assay can be readily adapted to study new variants and provides a framework for development of an assay that would include protection estimates.

Neutralising antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 omicron among elderly nursing home residents following a booster dose of BNT162b2 vaccine: A community-based, prospective, longitudinal cohort study.

Background: The protective immunity against omicron following a BNT162b2 Pfizer booster dose among elderly individuals (ie, those aged >65 years) is not well characterised. Methods: In a community-based, prospective, longitudinal cohort study taking place in France in which 75 residents from three nursing homes were enrolled, we selected 38 residents who had received a two-dose regimen of mRNA vaccine and a booster dose of Pfizer BNT162b2 vaccine. We excluded individuals that did not receive three vaccine doses or did not have available sera samples. We measured anti-S IgG antibodies and neutralisation capacity in sera taken 56 (28-68) and 55 (48-64) days (median (range)) after the 2nd and 3rd vaccine doses, respectively. Antibodies targeting the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein were measured with the S-Flow assay as binding antibody units per milliliter (BAU/mL). Neutralising activities in sera were measured as effective dilution 50% (ED50) with the S-Fuse assay using authentic isolates of delta and omicron BA.1. Findings: Among the 38 elderly individuals recruited to the cohort study between November 23rd, 2020 and April 29th, 2021, with median age of 88 (range 72-101) years, 30 (78.95%) had been previously infected with SARS-CoV-2. After three vaccine doses, serum neutralising activity was lower against omicron BA.1 (median ED50 of 774.5, range 15.0-34660.0) than the delta variant (median ED50 of 4972.0, range 213.7-66340.0), and higher among previously infected (ie, convalescent; median ED50 against omicron: 1088.0, range 32.6-34660.0) compared with infection-naive residents (median ED50 against omicron: 188.4, range 15.0-8918.0). During the French omicron wave in December 2021-January 2022, 75% (6/8) of naive residents were infected, compared to 25% (7/30) of convalescent residents (P=0.0114). Anti-Spike antibody levels and neutralising activity against omicron BA.1 after a third BNT162b2 booster dose were lower in those with breakthrough BA.1 infection (n=13) compared with those without (n=25), with a median of 1429.9 (range 670.9-3818.3) BAU/mL vs 2528.3 (range 695.4-8832.0) BAU/mL (P=0.029) and a median ED50 of 281.1 (range 15.0-2136.0) vs 1376.0 (range 32.6-34660.0) (P=0.0013), respectively. Interpretation: This study shows that elderly individuals who received three vaccine doses elicit neutralising antibodies against the omicron BA.1 variant of SARS-CoV-2. Elderly individuals who had also been previously infected showed higher neutralising activity compared with naive individuals. Yet, breakthrough infections with omicron occurred. Individuals with breakthrough infections had significantly lower neutralising titers compared to individuals without breakthrough infection. Thus, a fourth dose of vaccine may be useful in the elderly population to increase the level of neutralising antibodies and compensate for waning immunity. Funding: Institut Pasteur, Fondation pour la Recherche Médicale (FRM), European Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA), Agence nationale de recherches sur le sida et les hépatites virales - Maladies Infectieuses Emergentes (ANRS-MIE), Agence nationale de la recherche (ANR), Assistance Publique des Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) and Fondation de France.